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Friday, December 2, 2011

Cause and Effect Can Solve the Immigration Problem By Chuck McGlawn 12/02/2011


The US and especially Alabama is about to get a real-life lesson on “Cause and Effect”. That is if the courts stay out of Alabama’s H.B. 56, passed on June 9, 2011. Alabama can now boast of having the nation’s harshest anti-immigrant law. The law makes it a crime to be without status.  The Court intervened in Arizona, removing the real teeth from SB 1070 and averting the real economic disaster. Alabama might not be as lucky, the dominos are already falling.

It is real easy to say, as Center for American Progress has that, “$40 million—A conservative estimate of how much Alabama’s economy would contract if only 10,000 (8%) of the  undocumented immigrants stopped working in the state.”  It is a lot harder to say, how does Chad Smith of Smith Farms, replace the $300,000 lost because of labor shortages in the wake of H.B. 56. Harder still what happens to the supervisory staff (likely citizens) that lose their jobs? What happens the piano teacher that loses 25% of her students because of lost profits and lost jobs. Will she be able to make her mortgage payment? How wide and how deep does the loss of $300,000 profit go? Let me say. it touches everyone. Homeless Freddie doesn’t eat today because waitress Madge didn’t get her regular tips from the Jones’ family who couldn’t afford their Friday Family Feast at the local Pizzeria because increased cost of food for every night dinner drained the Friday Family Feast Funds. Tony’s profits, are cut because he must have new menus printed to reflect the new higher prices. (By the way, I am taking up a collection for a “hit-man” for the idiot that says, “The printer’s business is up”) There is just no way that the incremental pain and suffering can be measured and set forth in any research study.

If Alabama is successful and every undocumented immigrant self-deports, Alabama will lose over 18,000 jobs and 2.6 billion in economic activity according to a Perryman Group study   
Alabama’s State Senator, Scott Beason continues to say HB56, is a “jobs bill” although this is contrary to all evidence. Based upon all available economic research and evidence, the Federal Reserve Bank declared “there is no evidence that immigrants crowd out U.S.-born workers in either the short or long run.” It further found that
Statistical analysis of state-level data shows that immigrants expand the economy’s productive capacity by stimulating investment and promoting specialization. (Emphasis added)  This produces efficiency gains and boosts income per worker. At the same time, evidence is scant that immigrants diminish the employment opportunities of U.S.-born workers.
And concerning HB56, economists almost universally (Emphasis added) concur that: Anti-immigration laws like Alabama’s are jobs and economic growth killers. These laws play well politically, but are based on flawed economic logic. The reason for this is that, as Michigan economics professor Mark Perry says, “There is no fixed pie or fixed number of jobs, so there is no way for immigrants to take away jobs from Americans. Immigrants expand the economic pie.”
What will HB56 do to Alabama’s economic pie?  A study by the Perryman Group, produced an “An Analysis of the Economic Impact of Undocumented Workers on Business Activity in the US with Estimated Effects by State and by Industry” as we have said above, The study concludes that if Alabama is sucessful and every undocumented immigrant self-deports, Alabama will lose over 18,000 jobs and 2.6 billion in economic activity, and these numbers are even understated:
Therefore, with HB56 standing alone (the “static scenario”) without any “contemporaneous adjustment” at the federal level, Alabama stands to lose over 51,000 jobs and 8 billion in economic activity. (BTW, this is the present situation.)
Because of these staggering numbers, the analysts conclude:
The most compelling conclusions from this assessment are (1) the undocumented workforce is vital to US business growth and prosperity (and, in some cases, sustainability) and, thus, (2) an enforcement-only and removal approach is simply not viable. . .
The Perryman Group’s analysis indicates that the undocumented workforce has a positive effect on the economy. It is becoming more and more apparent that Dr. Keivan Deravi, an economics  professor at AUM and budget adviser to the Legislature, was right, HB56 “wasn’t supported by facts and wasn’t based on real economic theories and research.
The Cause and Effect lesson will become very clear when, the second most asked question in Alabama, right behind “Where are your papers” is, “Where are our profits?”

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mr. McGlawn said:

"Alabama might not be as lucky, the dominos are already falling"

Since the new anti-illegal immigrant law was passed in Alabama, the state's unemployment rate fell a whopping .5% and the percentages were even higher in those Alabama counties that have historically relied on illegal immigrant labor. This means that unemployed American citizens are replacing the illegal labor and the illegal labor is departing the state. ALL WONDERFUL OUTCOMES for the fine citizens in the State of Alabama. Now citizens can feed, house and clothe their families without worrying about going to the poor house. This is the way it should be in America!

http://www.amren.com/mtnews/archives/2011/11/alabama_law_pay.php

I noted in the blog "Chuck Semiinformed vs. Carl Concerned" that those who promote illegal labor are really supporting de-facto slavery not much different from what prevailed in this nation in the 1800's. I provided all my supporting arguments under that blog. No one, not even Mr. McGlawn, disputed them. Illegal Immigration = Defacto Slavery. And amnesty would solve nothing since the businesses would terminate all the new citizens (former illegals) and hire a new crop of illegals so that they could continue to pay subpar wages and avoid paying taxes on their help. All we would get are former illegals (new citizens) on our social service rolls demanding more welfare payments and food stamps.

God bless the State of Alabama for taking a stand against this nonsense and opening up new jobs for their unemployed citizens!!!

Anonymous said...

We have ample (millions) of law abiding foreigners who have filled out their paperwork, paid their fees, taken their tests and are waiting for a work visas to come to America and LAWFULLY enter the workforce. If we need more foreign labor during low unemployment periods we can easily draw from this population of applicants. There is absolutely NO REASON to allow unscreened invaders to enter our nation and hijack our resources. None. Zero. It makes no sense whatsoever. It would be the same as renting out an apartment, home or room to a stanger without first screening that individual with financial, employment, credit and criminal background checks. No landlord with brain would forego these checks. That is why all civilized and economically thriving nations of the world vigilantly protect their borders and thoroughly screen all foreigners who wish to enter their nations and reside within their system. If an open borders policy provided thriving civilized nations with a competitive economic advantage ALL WOULD DO IT. There is a reason none do. It compromises the survival of their respective homelands.

Chuckest said...

Thank you for your comments. All I will say now is, Let's wait to see what happens.

Anonymous said...

I am disappointed that you did not remark or provide counterarguments to many of the points that I made under your various articles, Mr. McGlawn. I always hope that someone on the other side of the illegal immigration debate could make me question my own beliefs. But it hasn't happened yet. I ask the same questions and provide many of the same facts with little or no response. Oh well. Perhaps one day I will come across an opponent who offers solid counterarguments that change my mind with new information. But I doubt. The arguments on the 'anti' side are simply too strong and overwhelming. Thanks for your participation here although.

Anonymous said...

Hopefully someday we will form a consensus and a movement in this country to put an end to what amounts to de-facto slavery in America. Naturally, the answer is to hold the slaveowners (business that hire illegals) accountable for undercutting the system and violating US labor laws - and by reuniting the slaves with their respective homelands through a deportation program like Eisenhower designed in 1954. Then, if we need more foreign labor in America, we can import it in a sensible way by actually drawing from the millions of foreign applicants who have already filled out their paperwork, paid their fees, taken their tests and await the award of a legal work visa.

That would be a rational, reasonable common sense approach. But it seems that we have lost all our common sense in this country. That's why we decline year after year after year. All these problems have rational answers that the closed minded ones who are driven by personal agendas (political, social, economic, etc..) choose to willfully ignore.

Chuckest said...

A$ said, "Since the new anti-illegal immigrant law was passed in Alabama, the state's unemployment rate fell a whopping .5% and the percentages were even higher in those Alabama counties that have historically relied on illegal immigrant labor."

This reminds me of the humane trait of blaming others for the things that go wrong, but they take full credit for their hole-in-one.

There is one two things of which the objective reader should be aware. First, the .5% drop in unemployment matches exactly the National reduction of unemployment. Secondly, Alabama reported the sources of increased employment in October by 9,700, with the majority of the gains coming from the trade, transportation, & utilities sector, the government sector, and the professional and business. Which one of those sectors had the mass Illegal immigration exodus?

Chuckest said...

A4 said, Hopefully someday we will form a consensus and a movement in this country to put an end to what amounts to de-facto slavery in America.

Slavery!!! you must be kidding. These good men, pay thousands of dollars to slimy characters known as coyotes to bring them to California to stand in front of places like Home Depot in hopes they will be picked to work for from $8.00 to $10.00 per hour. That is a wage three to four times what they would earn if they could find work at home.

Slavery, I think not. And I am sure that they think not as well.